The KC Star's, Dave Helling pointed out the 4 main factors in the November Elections in yesterday's column, Midterms Forecast: Stormy.
The 4 factors are: Women, Obama, Incumbents and the Tea Party. When it comes to Obama and Incumbents it is basically anti-Obama and anti-incumbent. Although, Helling mentions one Missouri candidate that would be willing to campaign with Obama, that would be Robin Carnahan.
As for the anti-incumbent factor, Specter and Bob Bennett have already been casualties. I, personally, would argue that its more about anti-liberal than anti-incumbent. Yet, its definitely a huge issue for incumbents, especially if they are Democrats.
The Tea Party is a wild card with some successes and some failures. Jeff Roe summed it up well:
Yet Roe insisted the tea party has energized the most important part of the Republican base.Women are proving to be more of a factor than anyone knew; and for those Sarah Palin haters and doubters, Palin Power is proving to be quite potent. Here is an excerpt from Helling's article:
“Any time conservatives are fired up, it just absolutely helps Republicans,” he said.
In California, former business executive Carly Fiorina easily won the Republican nomination Tuesday to face Sen. Barbara Boxer, the incumbent Democrat. It’s the first time both parties in the nation’s biggest state have nominated women for a Senate seat (both California senators — Democrats — are women.) Also in California, Meg Whitman won the GOP gubernatorial nomination to face former Gov. Jerry Brown.
“In an election season in which voters are desperately searching for change, this may yet turn out to be another ‘Year of the Woman,’ ” Newsweek columnist Jonathan Alter wrote Wednesday.
That could be good news for Democrat Robin Carnahan, who has pulled close to Rep. Roy Blunt in some polls in the Senate race in Missouri, and House candidates such as Stephene Moore, Patricia Lightner and Lynn Jenkins in Kansas and Vicky Hartzler in Missouri.
Strategists also are closely monitoring the Sarah Palin effect in the Republican Party. The former Alaska governor and vice presidential candidate endorsed winner Nikki Haley in the South Carolina GOP governor’s race, and Haley is the favorite in a June 22 runoff for the nomination.