Monday, December 10, 2007

How the Race is Shaping Up!

I interviewed Mike Becker, a volunteer for the Rudy campaign on my show today. I hope to be able to have a Fred Thompson and possibly a Duncan Hunter campaign person on my show in the near future. If anyone knows someone who represents these campaigns and might be interested, let me know. I also wouldn't be opposed to other campaign representatives except I probably wouldn't waste my time with Ron Paul or Tom Tancredo people.

Mike pointed out this post of Ken's to me and I think he makes some good points. The Republican race is still pretty fluid. Huckabee may be the flavor of the month but I doubt his mini-boom is going to get him the nomination, at least I'm hoping not. Here is what Patrick Ruffini says about the possible ramifications of Huckabee doing well in Iowa:
Now, no one — least of all Rudy — wants to be compared with Bob Dole. But here’s what Dole had going for him: the opposition was fragmented. Pat Buchanan won in Louisiana and Iowa. Forbes won in Delaware and Arizona. Lamar! had a Huck-like burst of momentum out of Iowa. Conservatives couldn’t settle on a single anti-Dole candidate. Had such a candidate swept the non-Iowa races up to South Carolina, they probably would have won. But the field was split.

If Huckabee wins Iowa, his momentum is not actionable in New Hampshire because of the demographics, but he probably wounds Romney, making that a closer race than it would have been with Rudy (or McCain?) With Fred (probably) out of the race, Huckabee then wins in South Carolina. A poll released at the YouTube debate already had Huckabee at 17% in Florida. Mitt’s only obvious opportunity in this early state jumble is Michigan, but will he have the momentum needed to move up after underperforming early on (unless Rudy/McCain/Fred somehow all self-destruct)?

This early muddle is exactly the kind of scenario Rudy’s 2/5 strategy was made for. As people try to sort out the Mitt/Huck mess, Rudy bides his time and rolls with big delegate wins in Florida, California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.

It’s risky, to be sure. I’ve never been a fan of this approach, and Rudy’s people do seem to be walking it back a bit. But it is exactly this kind of late strike by Huckabee that may validate Rudy’s initial strategy in the end.
Another issue that has made me a big fan of Rudy is his pro-school choice stance. He doesn't just talk about it either, he is someone that given the chance would aggressively implement it unlike Bush who just kind of flirted with it. To sink my opinions of Huckabee and Ron Paul further I find that they are the ONLY 2 Republican candidates who are against school choice. In fact, Huckabee wants to expand the school bureaucracy. The more I find out about Huckabee the more fearful I get of him being our nominee.

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